| dc.contributor |
Naval Postgraduate School |
|
| dc.contributor |
Business and Public Policy (GSBPP) |
|
| dc.creator |
Arkes, Jeremy |
|
| dc.date |
2016 |
|
| dc.date |
2020-07-01T20:20:39Z |
|
| dc.date |
2020-07-01T20:20:39Z |
|
| dc.date |
2016 |
|
| dc.date.accessioned |
2022-05-19T07:32:56Z |
|
| dc.date.available |
2022-05-19T07:32:56Z |
|
| dc.identifier |
Arkes, Jeremy. "On the misinterpretation of insignificant estimates." Available at |
|
| dc.identifier |
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/65135 |
|
| dc.identifier.uri |
http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/100034 |
|
| dc.description |
This article aims to remedy a common misinterpretation of insignificant coefficient estimates and presents a method to find hidden information in insignificant effects. I first discuss possible reasons for insignificant effects. I then use two distinct research areas as case studies: (1) how divorces are associated with changes in children’s behavior to demonstrate how “counteracting effects” could cause insignificant estimates and to demonstrate a method to simultaneously identify positive and negative effects; (2) the “hot hand” in basketball to demonstrate how improper interpretations of insignificant estimates spawned decades of over-reaching conclusions in further research, best-selling books, and the popular press. |
|
| dc.format |
20 p. |
|
| dc.format |
application/pdf |
|
| dc.language |
en_US |
|
| dc.rights |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
|
| dc.title |
On the misinterpretation of insignificant estimates |
|
| dc.type |
Preprint |
|