Sangam: A Confluence of Knowledge Streams

WINNING THE PAPUANS’ “HEARTS AND MINDS”: ANALYZING THE INDONESIAN STRATEGY TO COUNTER THE PAPUAN INSURGENCY

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dc.contributor Borer, Douglas A.
dc.contributor Burks, Robert E.
dc.contributor Defense Analysis (DA)
dc.creator Ismanto, Tri Yudha
dc.date Dec-19
dc.date 2020-02-20T01:32:38Z
dc.date 2020-02-20T01:32:38Z
dc.date 2019-12
dc.date.accessioned 2022-05-19T07:39:07Z
dc.date.available 2022-05-19T07:39:07Z
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10945/64190
dc.identifier 32674
dc.identifier.uri http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/100107
dc.description Papuan insurgents, the Organisasi Papua Merdeka, emerged in 1965 to demand independence from Indonesia, and their nationalist movement appears to be growing. This thesis analyzes the Indonesian government’s strategy to determine how it can more effectively counter the insurgents in Papua and West Papua provinces. Autonomy and military operations in those provinces have not stopped the resistance, and the Papuans cite their marginalization and human rights violations by the Indonesian government, persistent poverty, and a disputed history as primary grievances fueling their demands for independence. This thesis uses historical research to describe the root cause of the Papuan nationalist movement and analyzes two relevant case studies, East Timor and Aceh, using McCormick’s diamond model, along with the counterinsurgency and insurgency theories. To identify the best strategy to counter the Papuan insurgency, three models are applied: the SIR model (to predict the likelihood of the insurgents’ influence spreading), multiple linear regression model (to find the correlation between autonomy and reduced insurgent violence), and game theory model (to provide an explanation for both actors’ strategic moves). The analysis finds that preventive actions, constructive dialogue, increased autonomy, and strengthened diplomacy are needed to address the Papuans’ grievances. Further, it finds special military operations and law enforcement are critical to maintain stability in the region.
dc.description http://archive.org/details/winningthepapuan1094564190
dc.description Outstanding Thesis
dc.description Lieutenant Colonel, Indonesian Marine Corps
dc.description Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
dc.format application/pdf
dc.publisher Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
dc.rights Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.
dc.subject OPM
dc.subject Papua
dc.subject TNI
dc.subject insurgents
dc.subject COIN
dc.subject security forces
dc.subject autonomy
dc.subject McCormick
dc.subject GOI
dc.title WINNING THE PAPUANS’ “HEARTS AND MINDS”: ANALYZING THE INDONESIAN STRATEGY TO COUNTER THE PAPUAN INSURGENCY
dc.type Thesis


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