Libraries and publishers have evolved together. Publishers rely on libraries as a minimum market for their scholarly products. Inflationary pressures have caused publishers to increase prices that, in turn, strain library budgets that have not increased as fast, and which, in turn, undermine the minimal demand publishers can count on, adding to inflationary pressure.A simple mathematical model for the dynamics of the interaction between libraries and publishers is analyzed. It derives a function for the supply curve of scholarly publications, and is used to estimate when an institution will have to spend as much per person on library support as on his or her salary if present trends continue. This is used to argue that present trends are unlikely to continue, but that a discontinuous shift in the production of scholarly output is likely to occur within a decade or two. Likely new forms of communication among scholars in "communicating classes" involving nearly simultaneous communication and a new kind of organized cumulative record are discussed. The implication for institutional changes not only in libraries and publishers and their interrelation but of new kinds of institutions are sketched.
Peer Reviewed
http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/24542/1/0000822.pdf