Description:
In this policy-oriented paper, we provide a pre- and post-pandemic
socioeconomic analysis of Peru, along with a financially sustainable
five-year Building Back Better recovery plan, which emphasizes the
urgency of addressing some of the country’s structural weaknesses.
We underscore the importance of public investment for this effort,
but widen the focus to include current public expenditure, in order to
take steps towards building a more universal social protection system.
We show that this also contributes to reducing the gender imbalances
in the labor market that the pandemic exposed and exacerbated. We
provide a financial programming exercise that demonstrates that the
plan is financially responsible under a reasonable fiscal rule. Four core
ideas stand out from our analysis. Firstly, while public investment
can be key to reigniting economic growth, it does not go very far in
tackling structural weaknesses. Secondly, public spending in health
can actually achieve this from two fronts: by beginning to build a
universal access social protection system and by addressing gender
imbalances in the labor market. Thirdly, focusing public discussion
on social protection enables a broader approach to policy reform by
including formal employment and productivity enhancing reforms,
which are essential for the sustainability of a broad social protection
system. Finally, we also show that the sector mix in public investment
has an impact on employment results, both in terms of the volume of
jobs generated and their gender composition.