This is the final version. Available on open access from Pensoft Publishers via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: Some distribution data from South America analysed during this study are included in the Supplementary Information files. This does not include data from Plantwise clinics in Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua and Peru, due to data sharing restrictions. Some other distribution data are available from CABI’s Plantwise programme but restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under licence for the current study and so are not publicly available. Data may be available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission of Plantwise. All other data used are publicly available from the referenced data sources.Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20-50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe impact on livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworm’s year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). We also investigated the strength of trade and transportation pathways that could carry fall armyworm beyond Africa. Up till now, fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworm’s year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate conditions that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)UK Department for International Development (DfID)