Sangam: A Confluence of Knowledge Streams

Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm

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dc.creator Early, R
dc.creator González-Moreno, P
dc.creator Murphy, ST
dc.creator Day, R
dc.date 2018-11-22T10:44:05Z
dc.date 2018-11-09
dc.date.accessioned 2022-05-27T01:02:40Z
dc.date.available 2022-05-27T01:02:40Z
dc.identifier Published online 9 November 2018
dc.identifier 10.3897/neobiota.40.28165
dc.identifier SW-07640
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34861
dc.identifier 1619-0033
dc.identifier NeoBiota
dc.identifier.uri http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/241902
dc.description This is the final version. Available on open access from Pensoft Publishers via the DOI in this record
dc.description Data availability statement: Some distribution data from South America analysed during this study are included in the Supplementary Information files. This does not include data from Plantwise clinics in Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua and Peru, due to data sharing restrictions. Some other distribution data are available from CABI’s Plantwise programme but restrictions apply to the availability of these data, which were used under licence for the current study and so are not publicly available. Data may be available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission of Plantwise. All other data used are publicly available from the referenced data sources.
dc.description Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is a crop pest native to the Americas, which has invaded and spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa within two years. Recent estimates of 20-50% maize yield loss in Africa suggest severe impact on livelihoods. Fall armyworm is still infilling its potential range in Africa and could spread to other continents. In order to understand fall armyworm’s year-round, global, potential distribution, we used evidence of the effects of temperature and precipitation on fall armyworm life-history, combined with data on native and African distributions to construct Species Distribution Models (SDMs). We also investigated the strength of trade and transportation pathways that could carry fall armyworm beyond Africa. Up till now, fall armyworm has only invaded areas that have a climate similar to the native distribution, validating the use of climatic SDMs. The strongest climatic limits on fall armyworm’s year-round distribution are the coldest annual temperature and the amount of rain in the wet season. Much of sub-Saharan Africa can host year-round fall armyworm populations, but the likelihoods of colonising North Africa and seasonal migrations into Europe are hard to predict. South and Southeast Asia and Australia have climate conditions that would permit fall armyworm to invade. Current trade and transportation routes reveal Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand face high threat of fall armyworm invasions originating from Africa.
dc.description Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
dc.description UK Department for International Development (DfID)
dc.language en
dc.publisher Pensoft Publishers
dc.rights © 2018 Regan Early et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
dc.subject Agriculture
dc.subject biological invasion
dc.subject climate envelope
dc.subject crop pest
dc.subject ecological niche model
dc.title Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm
dc.type Article


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