Knowing, When You Do Not Know : Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis

Narayan, Ambar; Sánchez-Páramo, Carolina

dc.creator	Narayan, Ambar
dc.creator	Sánchez-Páramo, Carolina
dc.date	2012-03-19T08:44:04Z
dc.date	2012-03-19T08:44:04Z
dc.date	2012-01-12
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-17T20:33:08Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-17T20:33:08Z
dc.identifier	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000386194_20120109012250
dc.identifier	978-0-8213-8981-2
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2229
dc.identifier.uri	http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/242606
dc.description	Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the crisis. Moreover, in many cases, impacts on the ground might be already occurring as macro developments become known, while micro level evidence is still unavailable because of paucity of data. Because of these reasons, a comprehensive real-time understanding of how the aggregate changes will translate to impacts at the micro level remains elusive. This problem is particularly acute when dealing with developing countries where household data is sporadic or out of date. This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem, showcasing a micro simulation model, developed in response to demand from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. During the growing catastrophe in a few industrialized countries, there was rising concern about how the crisis would affect the developing world and how to respond to it through public policies. World Bank staff s was scrambling to help countries design such policies; this in turn required information on which groups of the population, sectors and regions the crisis would likely affect and to what extent. The volume is organized as follows. Chapter 1 summarizes the methodology underlying the micro simulation model to predict distributional impacts of the crisis, along with several case studies that highlight how the model can be used in different country contexts. Chapters 2 to 4 are written by experts external to the Bank, two of whom participated as discussants at a workshop on the micro simulation work organized in May, 2010 at the World Bank headquarters. Chapter 2 comments on the broader implications and shortcomings of applying the technique described in Chapter 1 and the ability or willingness of governments to respond adequately to its results. Chapter 3 draws parallels between the United States and developing countries to discuss the lessons that can be learned for mitigating the impacts of future crises. Chapter 4 discusses how the micro simulation approach can be sharpened to make it a better tool for distributional analysis moving forward.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	World Bank
dc.relation	World Bank Study
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.rights	World Bank
dc.subject	ACCOUNTING
dc.subject	AGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT
dc.subject	AGGREGATE INEQUALITY
dc.subject	AGGREGATE OUTPUT
dc.subject	ANTI-POVERTY
dc.subject	ANTI-POVERTY PROGRAMS
dc.subject	AVERAGE INCOME
dc.subject	BENEFICIARIES
dc.subject	CALORIE INTAKE
dc.subject	CONSTANT POVERTY LINE
dc.subject	COUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subject	CRISES
dc.subject	DATA REQUIREMENTS
dc.subject	DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subject	DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subject	DEVELOPED WORLD
dc.subject	DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject	DEVELOPING WORLD
dc.subject	DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS
dc.subject	DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS
dc.subject	DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT
dc.subject	ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject	ELASTICITY
dc.subject	EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
dc.subject	EMPIRICAL WORK
dc.subject	EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS
dc.subject	EMPLOYMENT STATUS
dc.subject	EXTREME POVERTY
dc.subject	EXTREME POVERTY LINES
dc.subject	FARMERS
dc.subject	FEMALE EMPLOYMENT
dc.subject	FEMALE PARTICIPATION
dc.subject	FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subject	FOOD BASKET
dc.subject	FOOD PRICE
dc.subject	FOOD PRICES
dc.subject	FOOD REQUIREMENTS
dc.subject	GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subject	GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS
dc.subject	GLOBAL MARKETS
dc.subject	GROWTH RATES
dc.subject	HISTORICAL DATA
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD DATA
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD HEADS
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subject	IMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subject	INCOME
dc.subject	INCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject	INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subject	INCOME GAINS
dc.subject	INCOME GROUPS
dc.subject	INCOME GROWTH
dc.subject	INCOME LEVEL
dc.subject	INCOME LEVELS
dc.subject	INCOME SCALE
dc.subject	INCOME SHOCK
dc.subject	INCOME SHOCKS
dc.subject	INCOME SOURCE
dc.subject	INCOME SOURCES
dc.subject	INCOMES
dc.subject	INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
dc.subject	INEQUALITY
dc.subject	INEQUALITY MEASURES
dc.subject	INNOVATIONS
dc.subject	INSURANCE
dc.subject	LABOR FORCE
dc.subject	LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subject	LABOR MARKET
dc.subject	LABOR MARKETS
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC MISMANAGEMENT
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subject	MIDDLE CLASS
dc.subject	NATIONAL POVERTY
dc.subject	NEW POOR
dc.subject	NOMINAL WAGES
dc.subject	NUTRITION
dc.subject	OCCUPATIONS
dc.subject	OUTPUTS
dc.subject	PARTICIPATION RATES
dc.subject	PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject	POLICY CHANGES
dc.subject	POLICY DECISIONS
dc.subject	POLICY DESIGN
dc.subject	POLICY INTERVENTIONS
dc.subject	POLICY MEASURES
dc.subject	POLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subject	POOR
dc.subject	POOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject	POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject	POPULATION GROWTH
dc.subject	POVERTY ESTIMATES
dc.subject	POVERTY GAP
dc.subject	POVERTY HEADCOUNT
dc.subject	POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE
dc.subject	POVERTY IMPACT
dc.subject	POVERTY IMPACTS
dc.subject	POVERTY INCREASE
dc.subject	POVERTY INDICES
dc.subject	POVERTY LINE
dc.subject	POVERTY LINES
dc.subject	POVERTY PROGRAMS
dc.subject	POVERTY RATE
dc.subject	POVERTY RATES
dc.subject	POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject	PRICE CHANGES
dc.subject	PRIVATE TRANSFERS
dc.subject	PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject	PUBLIC POLICIES
dc.subject	PUBLIC TRANSFERS
dc.subject	REAL OUTPUT
dc.subject	RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
dc.subject	RELATIVE PRICES
dc.subject	RENTS
dc.subject	RURAL
dc.subject	RURAL AREAS
dc.subject	RURAL HOUSEHOLD
dc.subject	RURAL INCOME
dc.subject	SAFETY
dc.subject	SAFETY NET
dc.subject	SAFETY NET PROGRAMS
dc.subject	SAFETY NETS
dc.subject	SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
dc.subject	SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subject	SOCIAL BENEFITS
dc.subject	SOCIAL POLICY
dc.subject	SOCIAL PROGRAMS
dc.subject	SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject	TARGETING
dc.subject	TRANSFER PROGRAMS
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYED
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subject	WAGES
dc.subject	YOUNG WORKERS
dc.title	Knowing, When You Do Not Know : Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis
dc.type	Publications & Research :: Publication
dc.type	Publications & Research :: Publication