Description:
Throughout, the history of the Latin
America and Caribbean (LAC) region, natural resource wealth
has been critical for its economies. Production of precious
metals, sugar, rubber, grains, coffee, copper, and oil have
at various periods of history made countries in Latin
America-and their colonial powers-some of the most
prosperous in the world. In some ways, these commodities may
have changed the course of history in the world at large.
Latin America produced around 80 percent of the world's
silver in the 16th through 19th centuries, fueling the
monetary systems of not only Europe, but China and India as
well. The dramatic movements in commodity markets since the
early 2000s, as well as the recent economic crisis, provide
new data to analyze and also underscore the importance of a
better understanding of issues related to boom-bust
commodity cycles. The current pattern of global recovery has
favored LAC so far. Countercyclical policies have supported
domestic demand in the larger LAC economies, and external
demand from fast-growing emerging markets has boosted
exports and terms of trade for LAC's net commodity
exporters. Prospects for LAC in the short term look good.
Beyond the cyclical rebound, however, the region's
major longer-run challenge going forward will be to craft a
bold productivity agenda. With LAC coming out of this crisis
relatively well positioned, this may well be possible,
especially considering that the region's improved
macro-financial resiliency gives greater assurance that
future gains from growth will not be wiped out by financial
crises. In addition, LAC has been making significant strides
in the equity agenda and this could help mobilize consensus
in favor of a long overdue growth-oriented reform agenda.
But it remains to be seen whether the region will be able to
seize the opportunity to boost long-run growth, especially
considering the large gaps that LAC would need to close in
such key areas as saving, human capital accumulation,
physical infrastructure, and the ability to adopt and adapt
new technologies.