Description:
South Asia's rebound since March
2009 has been strong and is comparable to that in East Asia.
South Asia is poised to grow by about 7 percent in 2010 and
nearly 8 percent in 2011, thanks to the strong recovery in
India, good performances in Bangladesh, post-conflict bounce
in Sri Lanka, recovery in Pakistan, and turnarounds in other
countries, including Afghanistan, Maldives, and Nepal. The
region's prospective growth is close to pre-crisis peak
levels and faster than the high rates of the early part of
the decade (6.5 percent annually from 2000 to 2007). The
recovery is being led by rising domestic confidence and is
balanced in terms of domestic versus external demand,
consumption versus investment, and private demand versus
reliance on stimulus. Government policy, external support,
resumption of private spending, and global recovery are
driving the rebound. Strong government fiscal and monetary
stimulus packages and, in some cases, external assistance
are helping stimulate recovery. Improved optimism is helping
the recovery in private spending in India, Bangladesh,
Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. World trade and demand recovery are
also supporting the rebound in exports and tourism, as are
capital inflows. Not everyone is doing equally well, with
slower recovery in countries with weaker fundamentals, those
with unresolved conflict or post-conflict issues, and those
that were heavily exposed to the global downturn (Maldives,
Nepal, and Pakistan). Some significant risks are ahead in
the global environment, slowing worker remittances and
exports in a still hesitant and uncertain global recovery
(which recent events in Europe have highlighted), volatile
commodity prices, and continuing volatility in global
capital flows.