Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia

World Bank

dc.creator	World Bank
dc.date	2012-03-19T17:24:43Z
dc.date	2012-03-19T17:24:43Z
dc.date	2009-09-17
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-17T20:47:27Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-17T20:47:27Z
dc.identifier	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000333037_20090924233757
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3110
dc.identifier.uri	http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/243447
dc.description	The financial crisis threatens the welfare of about 160 million people in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region who are poor or are just above the poverty line. Using pre-crisis household data along with aggregate macroeconomic outturns to simulate the impact of the crisis on households, transmitted via credit market shocks, price shocks, and income shocks, this report finds that adverse effects are widespread and that poor and non-poor households alike are vulnerable. By 2010, for the region as a whole, some 11 million more people will likely be in poverty and over 23 million more people will find themselves just above the poverty line because of the crisis. The aggregate results mask the heterogeneity of impact within countries, including the concentration of the poverty impact in selected economic sectors. Meanwhile, stress tests on household indebtedness in selected countries suggest that ongoing macroeconomic shocks will expand the pool of households unable to service their debt, many of them from among the ranks of relatively richer households. In fact, already there are rising household loan delinquency rates. Finally, there is evidence that the food and fuel crisis is not over and a new round of price increases, via currency adjustments, will have substantial effects on net consumers. Lessons from last year's food crisis suggest that the poor are the worst hit, as many of the poor in Albania, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, for example, are net food consumers, with limited access to agricultural assets and inputs. The resilience of households to macroeconomic shocks ultimately depends upon the economy's institutional readiness, the flexibility of the economic policy regime, and the ability of the population to adjust. However, compared with previous crises, the scope for households to engage in their traditional coping strategies may be more limited. Fiscal policy responses in the short-term are also constrained by rapidly falling revenues. Governments in ECA have to make difficult choices over what spending items to protect and what items to cut, social protection programs to reform and scale-up, and new interventions to mitigate the impact of the crisis.
dc.language	English
dc.publisher	World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rights	World Bank
dc.subject	ACCESS TO CREDIT
dc.subject	ACCESS TO FINANCE
dc.subject	ACCOUNTING
dc.subject	ADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subject	ASSET CLASSES
dc.subject	ASSET POSITIONS
dc.subject	ASSET PRICE
dc.subject	ASSET PRICES
dc.subject	ASSET QUALITY
dc.subject	ASSET VALUES
dc.subject	BALANCE SHEET
dc.subject	BALANCE SHEETS
dc.subject	BANK CREDIT
dc.subject	BANKING MARKETS
dc.subject	BANKING SECTOR
dc.subject	BANKING SECTORS
dc.subject	BANKING SYSTEM
dc.subject	BANKING SYSTEMS
dc.subject	BASIS POINTS
dc.subject	BOND VALUATIONS
dc.subject	BORROWING
dc.subject	CAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subject	CAPITAL ADEQUACY
dc.subject	CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subject	CAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subject	CAPITAL OUTFLOWS
dc.subject	CDS
dc.subject	CENTRAL BANK
dc.subject	COLLATERAL
dc.subject	COMMODITY PRICE
dc.subject	COMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject	CONSUMER DURABLES
dc.subject	CONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subject	CREDIT CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject	CREDIT CRUNCH
dc.subject	CREDIT DEFAULT
dc.subject	CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS
dc.subject	CREDIT GROWTH
dc.subject	CREDIT MARKET
dc.subject	CREDIT MARKETS
dc.subject	CREDIT OUTSTANDING
dc.subject	CREDIT RISK
dc.subject	CREDIT RISKS
dc.subject	CREDIT SOURCES
dc.subject	CREDIT SPREADS
dc.subject	CREDITOR
dc.subject	CREDITOR BANK
dc.subject	CREDITOR BANKS
dc.subject	CRISIS COUNTRIES
dc.subject	CURRENCY DEPRECIATIONS
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subject	DEBT
dc.subject	DEBT BURDENS
dc.subject	DEBT HOLDING
dc.subject	DEBT OBLIGATIONS
dc.subject	DEBT REPAYMENTS
dc.subject	DEBT SERVICE
dc.subject	DELINQUENCY RATES
dc.subject	DEPOSIT
dc.subject	DEPOSITS
dc.subject	DEVALUATIONS
dc.subject	DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject	DEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subject	DIVERSIFICATION
dc.subject	DOMESTIC BANKING
dc.subject	DOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subject	DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY
dc.subject	DURABLES
dc.subject	EARNINGS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
dc.subject	ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subject	ECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
dc.subject	ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject	ECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subject	EMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subject	EMERGING MARKET
dc.subject	EMERGING MARKETS
dc.subject	EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subject	EQUIPMENT
dc.subject	EQUITIES
dc.subject	EQUITY HOLDINGS
dc.subject	EQUITY INDEX
dc.subject	EQUITY INDICES
dc.subject	EQUITY MARKET
dc.subject	EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject	EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject	EXPORT EARNINGS
dc.subject	EXPORT GROWTH
dc.subject	EXPORTERS
dc.subject	EXTERNAL FINANCE
dc.subject	EXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subject	EXTERNAL FUNDING
dc.subject	EXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subject	FAMILIES
dc.subject	FAMILY INCOME
dc.subject	FINANCIAL ASSETS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subject	FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL LITERACY
dc.subject	FINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subject	FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL POLICIES
dc.subject	FINANCIAL RISK
dc.subject	FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject	FINANCIAL SHOCKS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL SUPPORT
dc.subject	FINANCING REQUIREMENTS
dc.subject	FISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subject	FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject	FIXED EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject	FOREIGN BANK
dc.subject	FOREIGN CURRENCIES
dc.subject	FOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subject	FOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURES
dc.subject	FOREIGN INVESTORS
dc.subject	FUNDING SOURCES
dc.subject	GENDER
dc.subject	GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE
dc.subject	GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY
dc.subject	GLOBAL TRADE
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT DEFICITS
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT POLICIES
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT POLICY
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subject	HOME OWNERSHIP
dc.subject	HOST COUNTRIES
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD DEBT
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subject	HOUSING LOANS
dc.subject	HUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subject	INCOME FLOWS
dc.subject	INCOME SHOCK
dc.subject	INCOME SHOCKS
dc.subject	INDEBTED HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject	INDEBTEDNESS
dc.subject	INFLATION
dc.subject	INFLATION RISKS
dc.subject	INFORMAL CREDIT
dc.subject	INSURANCE
dc.subject	INTEREST RATE
dc.subject	INTEREST RATE RISKS
dc.subject	INTEREST RATES
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL BANKING
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL FINANCE
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS
dc.subject	INVENTORIES
dc.subject	INVESTMENT PROJECTS
dc.subject	LABOR MARKET
dc.subject	LIABILITY
dc.subject	LIABILITY SIDE
dc.subject	LIMITED ACCESS
dc.subject	LIQUIDITY
dc.subject	LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS
dc.subject	LIQUIDITY RISK
dc.subject	LIQUIDITY RISKS
dc.subject	LIVING STANDARDS
dc.subject	LOAN
dc.subject	LOAN DELINQUENCY
dc.subject	LOCAL CURRENCIES
dc.subject	LOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC CRISES
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subject	MARKET CONDITIONS
dc.subject	MARKET PRICES
dc.subject	MARKET PRICING
dc.subject	MATURITY
dc.subject	MATURITY MISMATCHES
dc.subject	MICRO DATA
dc.subject	MIGRANT LABOR
dc.subject	MONETARY FUND
dc.subject	MONETARY POLICY
dc.subject	MORTGAGE
dc.subject	MORTGAGE DEBT
dc.subject	MORTGAGE LOANS
dc.subject	MORTGAGES
dc.subject	MUTUAL FUND
dc.subject	MUTUAL FUNDS
dc.subject	NATIONAL BANK
dc.subject	OIL PRICE
dc.subject	PENSION
dc.subject	PENSION FUND
dc.subject	PENSION FUNDS
dc.subject	PENSION PROVISION
dc.subject	PENSION SYSTEM
dc.subject	PENSION SYSTEMS
dc.subject	PENSIONS
dc.subject	POLICY RESPONSE
dc.subject	POLICY RESPONSES
dc.subject	POLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subject	PORTFOLIO
dc.subject	PORTFOLIO RISK
dc.subject	PRICE CHANGES
dc.subject	PRICE MOVEMENTS
dc.subject	PRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subject	PRIVATE CREDIT
dc.subject	PUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subject	PUBLIC INVESTMENTS
dc.subject	RECESSION
dc.subject	REMITTANCE
dc.subject	REMITTANCES
dc.subject	RESERVES
dc.subject	RETURNS
dc.subject	RISK AVERSION
dc.subject	RISK MITIGATION
dc.subject	SAFETY NET
dc.subject	SAFETY NETS
dc.subject	SAVINGS
dc.subject	SECONDARY MARKET
dc.subject	SOCIAL CAPITAL
dc.subject	SOLVENCY
dc.subject	SOVEREIGN BOND
dc.subject	STANDARD ASSET
dc.subject	STOCKS
dc.subject	TRADE BALANCE
dc.subject	TRADE CREDITS
dc.subject	TRADING
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
dc.subject	UNION
dc.subject	VALUATION
dc.subject	VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject	WEALTH EFFECT
dc.subject	WEALTH EFFECTS
dc.title	Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia
dc.type	Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling
dc.coverage	Europe and Central Asia