Description:
Azerbaijan's oil and gas boom
presents a rare opportunity to accelerate improvements in
the quality of life of all its citizens. Its per capita
income is $5,100 in 2008, up nearly 400 percent from 2004 in
current USD terms; it could potentially exceed $6,500 by
2013 and higher beyond that. Consequently, poverty is likely
to continue to fall, especially in the rural areas, and the
entire population of nearly nine million can expect to
benefit significantly from expanded access to better quality
education and health services as well as more targeted
social assistance. Most of this income growth is expected to
come from non-oil output and exports, especially agriculture
and light manufacturing, though high levels of oil revenues
and public spending will continue to stimulate significant
growth of construction and various services sectors. Fiscal
revenues from oil and gas are expected to be $198 billion in
net present value terms through 2024 (based on the oil
production profile of June 2008). This report outlines
changes in policies and institutions that will be needed to
realize this vision.