Sangam: A Confluence of Knowledge Streams

Supporting material for "Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits"

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dc.contributor ERC - European Research Council
dc.contributor Schurer, Andrew
dc.creator Schurer, Andrew
dc.date 2017-07-05T11:09:03Z
dc.date 2017-12-30T05:15:08Z
dc.date.accessioned 2023-02-17T20:54:11Z
dc.date.available 2023-02-17T20:54:11Z
dc.identifier Schurer, Andrew. (2017). Supporting material for "Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits", [dataset]. University of Edinburgh. School of GeoSciences. https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/2092.
dc.identifier https://hdl.handle.net/10283/2763
dc.identifier https://doi.org/10.7488/ds/2092
dc.identifier.uri http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/244194
dc.description During the Paris Conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding ‘the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C’. However, ‘pre-industrial’ was not defined. Here we investigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood of exceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5, the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timing of exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline; for example, the probability of crossing 1.5C by the end of the century under RCP2.6 varies from 61% to 88% depending on how the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, both thresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition of the pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for threshold stabilization are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilization at 2C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40% when earlier than nineteenth-century climates are considered as a baseline. # Funding # Data produced as part of the ERC funded project (EC-320691), Transition into the Anthopocene (TITAN) at the School of GeoSciences.
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dc.language eng
dc.publisher University of Edinburgh. School of GeoSciences
dc.relation https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3345
dc.relation Schurer, A, Mann, ME, Hawkins, E, Tett, S & Hegerl, G 2017, 'Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits' Nature Climate Change, vol 7. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3345
dc.rights Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License
dc.subject Global climate change
dc.subject Paleoclimate
dc.subject Climate change projection
dc.subject Climate change prediction
dc.subject Physical Sciences::Climatology
dc.title Supporting material for "Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits"
dc.type dataset


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cdf_All_Forcings.txt 1.138Kb text/plain View/Open
cdf_GHG.txt 1.001Kb text/plain View/Open
Figure2.py 16.24Kb application/octet-stream View/Open
Figure3.py 9.528Kb application/octet-stream View/Open
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Main_analysis_Figure1.py 16.59Kb application/octet-stream View/Open

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