Marotta, Daniela; Yemtsov, Ruslan; El-Laithy, Heba; Abou-Ali, Hala; Al-Shawarby, Sherine
Description:
This paper presents a detailed picture
of how sustained growth in Egypt over 2005-2008 affected
different groups both above and below the poverty line.
This analysis, based on the Household Income, Expenditure
and Consumption Panel Survey conducted by Egypt s national
statistical agency, compares the changes in the static
poverty profiles (based on growth incidence curves on a
cross-section of data) with poverty dynamics (relying on
panel data, growth incidence curves and transition
matrices). The two approaches yield contrasting results: the
longitudinal analysis reveals that growth benefited the poor
while the cross-sectional analysis shows that the rich
benefitted even more. The paper also shows the importance of
going beyond averages to look at the trajectories of
individual households. Panel data analysis shows that the
welfare of the average poor household increased by almost 10
percent per year between 2005 and 2008, enough to move out
of poverty. Conversely however, many initially non-poor
households were exposed to poverty. As a matter of fact,
only 45 percent of the population in Egypt remained
consistently out of (near-) poverty throughout the period,
while the remaining 55 percent of Egyptians experienced at
least one (near-) poverty episode. This high mobility is not
a statistical artefact: it reflects the actual process of
growth. Taking high vulnerability into account is essential
when designing policies to protect the poor and to ensure
that growth is really inclusive.