Description:
This paper examines the growth patterns
of emerging Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS) countries prior to the global financial crisis.
The aim is to draw lessons on what policies can best
position these countries going forward to enjoy growth
without a buildup in macro and financial vulnerability.
Cluster analysis is used to classify these countries across
the growth and vulnerability dimensions; namely, a
classification into low or high growth outcomes, each of
which may occur with low or high vulnerability features. The
vulnerability indicators used are multifaceted, covering
both the domestic and the external dimensions that have been
identified in previous studies as being good indicators of
likelihood of crisis -- itself understood as
multidimensional. Based on multinomial logit regressions,
the initial conditions and the economic policies that might
affect the probabilities of being in each of the four
possible cluster combinations are examined. Many (if not
most) of the countries in the sample experienced very large
capital inflows relative to their gross domestic product
prior to the crisis, which can complicate macroeconomic
management and lead to a buildup of vulnerability. These
large inflows were partly due to the high liquidity in
global markets and, at least for some countries in the
country sample, the particular attractiveness of "new
Europe and emerging countries in the region" in the
eyes of foreign investors. Nonetheless, the analysis finds
strong evidence that the macroeconomic and structural
policies that over time influence the structure of the
economy, can play a significant role in explaining (and,
going forward, in influencing) the different growth and
vulnerability patterns experienced by the countries covered
in this paper.