Ferreira, Susana; Hamilton, Kirk; Vincent, Jeffrey R.
Description:
The authors analyze the determinants of
fatalities in 2,194 large flood events in 108 countries
between 1985 and 2008. Given that socioeconomic factors can
affect mortality right in the aftermath of a flood, but also
indirectly by influencing flood frequency and magnitude,
they distinguish between direct and indirect effects of
development on flood mortality. The authors find that income
is negatively associated with the frequency of floods and,
conditional on their magnitude, the fatalities they cause in
developing countries. However, for developed countries they
find that increased income is associated with more
fatalities, both directly (conditional on flood occurrence
and magnitude) and indirectly through an increase in the
frequency and magnitude of flood events. Also in contrast to
the literature, they find that the effect of governance on
flood frequency and fatalities in developing countries is
U-shaped, with improvements in governance reducing the
numbers of floods and deaths when governance is weaker but
raising them when governance is stronger.