Description:
Food price inflation in Brazil in the
twelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overall
inflation was seven percent. Using spatially disaggregated
monthly data on consumer prices and two different household
surveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these food
price increases, and their distribution across households.
Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a
predominantly wage-earning agricultural labor force, our
estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and
transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of
changes in consumer surplus. While the expenditure (or
consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly
regressive everywhere, the market income effect was positive
and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of
this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection
afforded by increases in two large social assistance
benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil
was U-shaped, with middle-income groups suffering larger
proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, since
Brazil is 80 percent urban, higher food prices still led to
a greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level.