Description:
Access to debt relief under the Highly
Indebted Poor Country Initiative enhanced the growth
performance across Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the
subset of debt-ridden low-income countries. Over the past
few years, these Completion Point countries have enjoyed
significantly higher investments and growth rates, primarily
fueled by the expanding fiscal space of the post-Highly
Indebted Poor Country Initiative era. They are also
weathering the adverse effects of the global crisis much
better than their non-Highly Indebted Poor Country
Initiative counterparts. Despite these growth rebounds, the
region is not likely to meet the Millennium Development
Goals, however. Long-term growth projections from a simple
macroeconomic model, which is applied to Ethiopia, suggest
that prospects for reversing the widening income gaps with
other regions of the developing world are limited. Under the
baseline scenario, assuming current growth trends, the
estimates show that it could take more than five decades for
per capita real income to double in Ethiopia. However, even
these gloomy prospects are likely to be undermined by the
looming risk of another sovereign debt crisis. In effect,
the experiments show that lowering interest rates on
external debt would not bridge the widening income gap with
other regions of the world, unless it is accompanied by a
rapid expansion of capital accumulation financed by
sustained inflows of foreign aid.