Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer, Stefan; Pflug, Georg; Lotsch, Alexander; Williges, Keith
Description:
National governments are key actors in
managing the impacts of extreme weather events, yet many
highly exposed developing countries -- faced with exhausted
tax bases, high levels of indebtedness, and limited donor
assistance -- have been unable to raise sufficient and
timely capital to replace or repair damaged infrastructure
and restore livelihoods after major disasters. Such
financial vulnerability hampers development and exacerbates
poverty. Based on the record of the past 30 years, this
paper finds many developing countries, in particular small
island states, to be highly financially vulnerable, and
experiencing a resource gap (net disaster losses exceed all
available financing sources) for events that occur with a
probability of 2 percent or higher. This has three main
implications. First, efforts to reduce risk need to be
ramped-up to lessen the serious human and financial burdens.
Second, contrary to the well-known Arrow-Lind theorem, there
is a case for country risk aversion implying that disaster
risks faced by some governments cannot be absorbed without
major difficulty. Risk aversion entails the ex ante
financing of losses and relief expenditure through calamity
funds, regional insurance pools, or contingent credit
arrangements. Third, financially vulnerable (and generally
poor) countries are unlikely to be able to implement
pre-disaster risk financing instruments themselves, and thus
require technical and financial assistance from the donor
community. The cost estimates of financial vulnerability --
based on today's climate -- inform the design of
"climate insurance funds" to absorb high levels of
sovereign risk and are found to be in the lower billions of
dollars annually, which represents a baseline for the
incremental costs arising from future climate change.