Assessing Ex Ante the Poverty and Distributional Impact of the Global Crisis in a Developing Country : A Micro-simulation Approach
with Application to Bangladesh

Habib, Bilal; Narayan, Ambar; Olivieri, Sergio; Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina

dc.creator	Habib, Bilal
dc.creator	Narayan, Ambar
dc.creator	Olivieri, Sergio
dc.creator	Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina
dc.date	2012-03-19T18:38:42Z
dc.date	2012-03-19T18:38:42Z
dc.date	2010-03-01
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-17T21:02:25Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-17T21:02:25Z
dc.identifier	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100316132959
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3725
dc.identifier.uri	http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/244689
dc.description	Measuring the poverty and distributional impact of the global crisis for developing countries is not easy, given the multiple channels of impact and the limited availability of real-time data. Commonly-used approaches are of limited use in addressing questions like who are being affected by the crisis and by how much, and who are vulnerable to falling into poverty if the crisis deepens? This paper develops a simple micro-simulation method, modifying models from existing economic literature, to measure the poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks by linking macro projections with pre-crisis household data. The approach is then applied to Bangladesh to assess the potential impact of the slowdown on poverty and income distribution across different groups and regions. A validation exercise using past data from Bangladesh finds that the model generates projections that compare well with actual estimates from household data. The results can inform the design of crisis monitoring tools and policies in Bangladesh, and also illustrate the kind of analysis that is possible in other developing countries with similar data availability.
dc.language	English
dc.relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5238
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rights	World Bank
dc.subject	ABSOLUTE TERMS
dc.subject	ADVERSE IMPACT
dc.subject	AGGREGATE INCOME
dc.subject	AGGREGATE POVERTY
dc.subject	AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
dc.subject	AGRICULTURAL GROWTH
dc.subject	AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subject	AGRICULTURAL SECTORS
dc.subject	AGRICULTURAL WAGE
dc.subject	AGRICULTURAL WORKERS
dc.subject	AGRICULTURE
dc.subject	AVERAGE GROWTH
dc.subject	AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subject	AVERAGE INCOME
dc.subject	BASE YEAR
dc.subject	BASIC FOOD BASKET
dc.subject	BENCHMARK
dc.subject	CHANGES IN POVERTY
dc.subject	CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subject	CONSUMPTION DATA
dc.subject	CONSUMPTION GROWTH
dc.subject	CONSUMPTION LEVELS
dc.subject	COPING STRATEGY
dc.subject	COUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subject	COUNTRY CASE
dc.subject	DAILY WAGE
dc.subject	DATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subject	DECLINE IN POVERTY
dc.subject	DEFLATORS
dc.subject	DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject	DEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subject	DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS
dc.subject	DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT
dc.subject	DOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subject	DOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subject	ECONOMETRIC MODELS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subject	ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject	ECONOMIC LITERATURE
dc.subject	EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
dc.subject	ELASTICITY
dc.subject	EMPIRICAL MODELS
dc.subject	EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subject	EMPLOYMENT STATUS
dc.subject	ERROR TERMS
dc.subject	EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject	EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject	EXPORTS
dc.subject	EXTREME POVERTY
dc.subject	FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject	FISCAL POLICIES
dc.subject	FOOD BASKET
dc.subject	FOOD INTAKE
dc.subject	FOOD ITEMS
dc.subject	FOOD NEEDS
dc.subject	FOOD PRICE
dc.subject	FOOD PRICES
dc.subject	GINI INDEX
dc.subject	GLOBAL MARKETS
dc.subject	GLOBAL POVERTY
dc.subject	GROWTH PROJECTIONS
dc.subject	GROWTH RATE
dc.subject	GROWTH RATES
dc.subject	HIGH GROWTH
dc.subject	HIGH POVERTY
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD DATA
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD HEADS
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD SIZE
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subject	IMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subject	IMPACT ON POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject	INCOME
dc.subject	INCOME BY REGION
dc.subject	INCOME DATA
dc.subject	INCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subject	INCOME GROUPS
dc.subject	INCOME LEVELS
dc.subject	INCOME POVERTY
dc.subject	INCOME SHOCK
dc.subject	INDUSTRIALIZATION
dc.subject	INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
dc.subject	INEQUALITY
dc.subject	INEQUALITY FALLS
dc.subject	INEQUALITY MEASURES
dc.subject	LABOR FORCE
dc.subject	LABOR MARKET
dc.subject	LAND OWNERSHIP
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subject	MICRO DATA
dc.subject	NATIONAL POVERTY
dc.subject	NATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subject	NEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subject	NOMINAL INCOME
dc.subject	OUTPUT GROWTH
dc.subject	PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
dc.subject	PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
dc.subject	PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject	PER CAPITA INCOMES
dc.subject	POLICY RESEARCH
dc.subject	POOR
dc.subject	POOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject	POOR INDIVIDUALS
dc.subject	POOR PEOPLE
dc.subject	POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject	POVERTY ASSESSMENT
dc.subject	POVERTY ESTIMATES
dc.subject	POVERTY GAP
dc.subject	POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE
dc.subject	POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES
dc.subject	POVERTY IMPACT
dc.subject	POVERTY LINE
dc.subject	POVERTY LINES
dc.subject	POVERTY MEASURES
dc.subject	POVERTY RATE
dc.subject	POVERTY RATES
dc.subject	POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject	PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT
dc.subject	PUBLIC SECTOR
dc.subject	PURCHASING POWER
dc.subject	RAPID GROWTH
dc.subject	REAL GDP
dc.subject	REGIONAL DIFFERENCES
dc.subject	RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
dc.subject	RELATIVE INEQUALITY
dc.subject	RELATIVE PRICES
dc.subject	RURAL
dc.subject	RURAL AREAS
dc.subject	RURAL COUNTERPARTS
dc.subject	RURAL POPULATION
dc.subject	SAVINGS
dc.subject	SKILLED LABOR
dc.subject	SOCIAL SECURITY
dc.subject	SPATIAL DIFFERENCES
dc.subject	SQUARED POVERTY GAP
dc.subject	SUBSISTENCE
dc.subject	SUBSISTENCE FARMERS
dc.subject	UNDERESTIMATES
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subject	URBAN AREAS
dc.subject	VALUE ADDED
dc.subject	WAGE GROWTH
dc.subject	WAGES
dc.subject	WELFARE IMPACT
dc.subject	WELFARE MEASURES
dc.title	Assessing Ex Ante the Poverty and Distributional Impact of the Global Crisis in a Developing Country : A Micro-simulation Approach with Application to Bangladesh
dc.type	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
dc.coverage	South Asia
dc.coverage	South Asia
dc.coverage	South Asia
dc.coverage	Asia
dc.coverage	Bangladesh