Description:
Russia entered the global crisis with
strong fiscal position, low public debt, and large fiscal
and monetary reserves, which helped it cushion the crisis
shocks. But the rise in the non-oil fiscal deficit in
2007-08 and, more importantly, the massive impact of the
global crisis in late 2008 and 2009 have dramatically
altered Russia's medium-term and long-term economic and
fiscal outlook. While Russia is emerging from this crisis on
a much stronger footing than during the 1998-09 crisis
thanks to its strong-pre crisis fundamentals, large fiscal
reserves and solid management of the crisis, it will
nevertheless need to implement sustained fiscal adjustment
in the coming years. Both revenue and expenditure measures
will be needed. This will require 2-3 percentage points of
GDP in fiscal adjustment for about five years in addition to
keeping total expenditure levels at a relatively low 31.5
percent of GDP, consistent with long-term social expenditure
needs and requirements of long-term fiscal sustainability.
Following a period of adjustment, if Russia would restrain
its long-term non-oil deficits to the permanent income (PI)
equivalent of its oil revenues as proposed in this paper,
its fiscal policy will return to long-term sustainable path.
The long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit
is estimated at about 4.3 percent of GDP. With the 2009
actual non-oil fiscal deficit of about 14 percent of GDP,
this implies significant and sustained fiscal adjustment
over the medium term. The expenditure needs of the social
security system as well as a reduction in key non-oil taxes
represent a major fiscal risk to all scenarios.