Description:
This paper shows that real exchange rate
undervaluation through the accumulation of foreign reserves
may improve welfare in economies with learning-by-investing
externalities that arise disproportionately from the
tradable sector. In the presence of targeting problems or
when policy choices are restricted by multilateral
agreements, first-best policies such as subsidies to capital
accumulation, or subsidies to tradable production are not
feasible. A neo-mercantilist policy of foreign reserve
accumulation "outsources" the targeting problem or
overcomes the multilateral restrictions by providing loans
to foreigners that can only be used to buy up domestic
tradable goods. This raises the relative price of tradable
versus non-tradable goods (i.e. undervalues the real
exchange rate) at the static cost of temporarily reducing
tradable absorption in the domestic economy. However, since
the tradable sector generates greater learning-by-investing
externalities, it leads to dynamic gains in the form of
higher growth. The net welfare effects of reserve
accumulation depend on the balance between the static losses
from lower tradable absorption versus the dynamic gains from
higher growth.