Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost

Dasgupta, Susmita; Huq, Mainul; Khan, Zahirul Huq; Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid; Mukherjee, Nandan; Khan, Malik Fida; Pandey, Kiran

dc.creator	Dasgupta, Susmita
dc.creator	Huq, Mainul
dc.creator	Khan, Zahirul Huq
dc.creator	Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid
dc.creator	Mukherjee, Nandan
dc.creator	Khan, Malik Fida
dc.creator	Pandey, Kiran
dc.date	2012-03-19T18:39:27Z
dc.date	2012-03-19T18:39:27Z
dc.date	2010-04-01
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-17T21:03:10Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-17T21:03:10Z
dc.identifier	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20100426144005
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3767
dc.identifier.uri	http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/244731
dc.description	This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than $50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage in the absence of adaptation measures.
dc.language	English
dc.relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5280
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rights	World Bank
dc.subject	ACCIDENT
dc.subject	AFFORESTATION
dc.subject	AIR
dc.subject	AIR TEMPERATURE
dc.subject	ANNUAL COST
dc.subject	ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
dc.subject	APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
dc.subject	ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE
dc.subject	BASES
dc.subject	BUILDING CODES
dc.subject	CASUALTIES
dc.subject	CASUALTY
dc.subject	CLIMATE
dc.subject	CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject	CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dc.subject	CLIMATE CHANGE INVESTMENT
dc.subject	CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY
dc.subject	CLIMATE MODELS
dc.subject	CLIMATE RESEARCH
dc.subject	CLIMATE VARIABLES
dc.subject	CLIMATES
dc.subject	CLIMATIC CHANGE
dc.subject	CLIMATOLOGY
dc.subject	CONCENTRATES
dc.subject	CONDENSATION
dc.subject	CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject	CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
dc.subject	COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject	COST ESTIMATES
dc.subject	CYCLONE ACTIVITY
dc.subject	CYCLONE EVENTS
dc.subject	CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
dc.subject	CYCLONE TRACKS
dc.subject	CYCLONES
dc.subject	CYCLONIC STORMS
dc.subject	DAMAGES
dc.subject	DEVASTATION
dc.subject	DISASTER
dc.subject	DISASTER MANAGEMENT
dc.subject	DISASTER PREPAREDNESS
dc.subject	DISASTER RECOVERY
dc.subject	DISASTER RISK
dc.subject	DISASTER RISKS
dc.subject	DISASTERS
dc.subject	EARLY WARNING
dc.subject	EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
dc.subject	ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subject	ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject	ELECTRICITY
dc.subject	EMERGENCY SHELTER
dc.subject	EMERGENCY SHELTERS
dc.subject	EPIDEMIOLOGY
dc.subject	EVACUATION
dc.subject	EVACUATIONS
dc.subject	FATALITIES
dc.subject	FATALITY
dc.subject	FINANCIAL SUPPORT
dc.subject	FLOOD
dc.subject	FLOODS
dc.subject	FOREST
dc.subject	FORESTS
dc.subject	GLOBAL CLIMATE
dc.subject	GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject	GLOBAL WARMING
dc.subject	GREENHOUSE
dc.subject	GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subject	GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subject	HUMIDITY
dc.subject	HURRICANE
dc.subject	HURRICANE INTENSITY
dc.subject	HURRICANES
dc.subject	ICE
dc.subject	IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject	INCOME
dc.subject	INCREASE IN WIND SPEED
dc.subject	INFORMATION ON CLIMATE
dc.subject	INFORMATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject	INFORMATION SYSTEM
dc.subject	INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subject	IPCC
dc.subject	LAND SURFACE
dc.subject	MAJOR HURRICANES
dc.subject	MANGROVE FOREST
dc.subject	MANGROVE FORESTS
dc.subject	MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
dc.subject	METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH
dc.subject	METEOROLOGY
dc.subject	MONSOON
dc.subject	MORTALITY RISK
dc.subject	NATURAL HAZARDS
dc.subject	OCEANS
dc.subject	PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
dc.subject	PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject	POWER PLANTS
dc.subject	POWER SECTOR
dc.subject	PP
dc.subject	PRECIPITATION
dc.subject	PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
dc.subject	RAINFALL
dc.subject	RAINY SEASON
dc.subject	REGIONAL CLIMATE
dc.subject	REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL
dc.subject	SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE
dc.subject	SEA LEVEL RISE
dc.subject	SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subject	SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
dc.subject	SEA-LEVEL
dc.subject	SEA-LEVEL RISE
dc.subject	STORM SURGE
dc.subject	STORM SURGE INUNDATION
dc.subject	STORM SURGE MODEL
dc.subject	STORM SURGES
dc.subject	STORM TRACKS
dc.subject	STORMS
dc.subject	SUPER CYCLONES
dc.subject	SUPER CYCLONIC STORM
dc.subject	SURFACE DATA
dc.subject	SURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subject	SURFACE TEMPERATURES
dc.subject	SURGE FLOODING
dc.subject	SURGE HEIGHT
dc.subject	TIDAL WAVES
dc.subject	TOTAL COST
dc.subject	TOTAL DAMAGES
dc.subject	TROPICAL CYCLONE
dc.subject	TROPICAL CYCLONES
dc.subject	TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS
dc.subject	TROPICAL STORMS
dc.subject	TROPOSPHERE
dc.subject	TSUNAMIS
dc.subject	UPPER ATMOSPHERE
dc.subject	WIND
dc.subject	WIND SPEED
dc.subject	WIND SPEEDS
dc.subject	WIND STRESS
dc.subject	WIND VELOCITY
dc.subject	WINDS
dc.title	Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost
dc.type	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
dc.coverage	South Asia
dc.coverage	South Asia
dc.coverage	South Asia
dc.coverage	Asia
dc.coverage	Bangladesh