Description:
Russia had more-or-less completed the
privatization of its manufacturing and natural resource
sectors by the end of 1997. And in February 1998, the annual
inflation rate at last dipped into the single digits.
Privatization should have helped with stronger
micro-foundations for growth. The conquest of inflation
should have cemented macroeconomic credibility, lowered real
interest rates, and spurred investment. Instead, Russia
suffered a massive public debt-exchange rate-banking crisis
just six months later, in August 1998. In showing how this
turn of events unfolded, the authors focus on the
interaction among Russia's deteriorating fiscal
fundamentals, its weak micro-foundations of growth and
financial globalization. They argue that the expectation of
a large official bailout in the final 10 weeks before the
meltdown played an important role, with Russia's
external debt increasing by $16 billion or 8 percent of
post-crisis gross domestic product during this time. The
lessons and insights extracted from the 1998 Russian crisis
are of general applicability, oil and geopolitics
notwithstanding. These include a discussion of when
financial globalization might actually hurt and a cutoff in
market access might actually help; circumstances in which an
official bailout could backfire; and why financial
engineering tends to fail when fiscal solvency problems are present.