Kojo, Naoko C.
Description:
This paper analyzes Botswana's
medium-term fiscal sustainability in view of the expected
depletion of diamonds in the future. The analysis shows that
in the absence of policy adjustments, Botswana's
current fiscal policy strategy is unsustainable over the
longer term, which could endanger macroeconomic stability
and Botswana's reputation as Africa's success
story. Ensuring medium-term sustainability of
Botswana's public finances requires stronger revenue
collection, through improved revenue administration, greater
tax enforcement, and the rationalization of tax exemptions
in order to realize the full revenue potential.
Opportunities also exist to generate more revenue from the
non-mining sector through changes in the tax regime. At the
same time, the government needs to maximize the
effectiveness of public expenditure and bring down public
spending to levels that are more in line with long-term
revenue prospects. A greater control over the public sector
wage bill is critically important. In-house capacity for
macroeconomic monitoring and fiscal analysis also needs to
be enhanced further. Looking ahead, growth of a dynamic
non-mining sector is crucial for Botswana not only from the
fiscal sustainability point of view, but from the point of
view of achieving balanced development that will create jobs
and deliver durable reduction in poverty and inequality.
Fiscal policy will have to play a central role in this process.