Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis

Mohapatra, Sanket; Ratha, Dilip

dc.creator	Mohapatra, Sanket
dc.creator	Ratha, Dilip
dc.date	2012-03-19T18:43:33Z
dc.date	2012-03-19T18:43:33Z
dc.date	2010-12-01
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-17T21:07:18Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-17T21:07:18Z
dc.identifier	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101230132625
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3996
dc.identifier.uri	http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/244966
dc.description	The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.
dc.language	English
dc.relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5512
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rights	World Bank
dc.subject	AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES
dc.subject	ASSETS
dc.subject	AVERAGE REMITTANCE
dc.subject	BANK DEPOSITS
dc.subject	BILATERAL FLOWS
dc.subject	BLACK MARKET
dc.subject	BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject	BRAIN DRAIN
dc.subject	CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject	CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subject	CREDIT RATING
dc.subject	CREDIT RATING AGENCIES
dc.subject	CREDITWORTHINESS
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION
dc.subject	DATA ON REMITTANCES
dc.subject	DEBT
dc.subject	DEBT FLOWS
dc.subject	DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subject	DEPOSITS
dc.subject	DEPRECIATION
dc.subject	DESTINATION COUNTRY
dc.subject	DETERMINANTS OF REMITTANCES
dc.subject	DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject	DEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subject	DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES
dc.subject	DIASPORA
dc.subject	ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject	ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
dc.subject	ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject	EMERGING MARKET
dc.subject	EMERGING MARKETS
dc.subject	EMIGRANT REMITTANCES
dc.subject	EQUITY FLOWS
dc.subject	EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject	EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
dc.subject	EXPENDITURES
dc.subject	EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
dc.subject	FINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subject	FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject	FINANCIAL FLOWS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL SERVICES
dc.subject	FIXED SHARE
dc.subject	FOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subject	FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subject	FORMAL FINANCIAL SERVICES
dc.subject	FUTURE PROSPECTS
dc.subject	FUTURE REMITTANCES
dc.subject	GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE
dc.subject	GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subject	GLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subject	GLOBAL EXCHANGE
dc.subject	GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subject	HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subject	HIGH-INCOME COUNTRY
dc.subject	HOME COUNTRY
dc.subject	HOST COUNTRIES
dc.subject	HOST COUNTRY
dc.subject	IMPORTANCE OF REMITTANCES
dc.subject	INCOME
dc.subject	INCOME GROUP
dc.subject	INCOME LEVEL
dc.subject	INCOME LEVELS
dc.subject	INCOMES
dc.subject	INFORMAL CHANNELS
dc.subject	INSURANCE
dc.subject	INTEREST RATE
dc.subject	INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL BANKS
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERS
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subject	KEY RISK
dc.subject	KEY RISK FACTOR
dc.subject	LOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subject	LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS
dc.subject	MARKET PLAYERS
dc.subject	MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subject	MIGRANT REMITTANCES
dc.subject	MIGRANTS
dc.subject	MIGRATION POLICY
dc.subject	MONETARY FUND
dc.subject	NATURAL DISASTER
dc.subject	NATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subject	NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subject	NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subject	OUTPUT
dc.subject	PARALLEL MARKET
dc.subject	PORTFOLIO
dc.subject	POST-CRISIS PERIOD
dc.subject	POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject	PRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subject	PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subject	QUOTAS
dc.subject	RECIPIENT COUNTRIES
dc.subject	RECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject	REMITTANCE
dc.subject	REMITTANCE CHANNELS
dc.subject	REMITTANCE COSTS
dc.subject	REMITTANCE FLOWS
dc.subject	REMITTANCE INFLOWS
dc.subject	REMITTANCE OUTFLOWS
dc.subject	REMITTANCE RECEIPTS
dc.subject	REMITTANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject	RETURN
dc.subject	RETURN MIGRATION
dc.subject	RETURNS
dc.subject	RISK FACTOR
dc.subject	ROLE OF REMITTANCES
dc.subject	SAVINGS
dc.subject	SEND MONEY
dc.subject	SEND REMITTANCES
dc.subject	SKILLED MIGRANTS
dc.subject	SOVEREIGN RATINGS
dc.subject	STOCK DATA
dc.subject	STOCKS
dc.subject	TOTAL AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES
dc.subject	TRANSACTION
dc.subject	TRANSACTION COSTS
dc.subject	TRANSFER COSTS
dc.subject	VALUE OF REMITTANCES
dc.subject	VOLATILITY
dc.subject	VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL
dc.subject	WEIGHTS
dc.subject	WORKER REMITTANCES
dc.title	Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis
dc.type	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
dc.coverage	The World Region
dc.coverage	The World Region