Description:
This paper assesses the potential
impacts of the removal of agriculture trade distortions
using a newly developed dataset and methodological approach
for evaluating the global poverty and inequality effects of
policy reforms. It finds that liberalization of agriculture
and food could increase global extreme poverty (US$1 a day)
by 0.2 percent and lower moderate poverty (US$2 a day) by
0.3 percent. Beneath these small aggregate changes, most
countries witness a substantial reduction in poverty while
South Asia-where half of the world's poor
reside-experiences an increase in extreme poverty incidence
due to high rates of protection afforded to
unskilled-intensive agricultural sectors. The distributional
changes are likely to be mild, but exhibit a strong regional
pattern. Inequality is likely to fall in regions such as
Latin America, which are characterized by high initial
inequality, and rise in regions like South Asia,
characterized by low initial inequality.