Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?

Hochrainer, Stefan

dc.creator	Hochrainer, Stefan
dc.date	2012-03-19T19:11:02Z
dc.date	2012-03-19T19:11:02Z
dc.date	2009-06-01
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-17T21:10:21Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-17T21:10:21Z
dc.identifier	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618131707
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4162
dc.identifier.uri	http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/245199
dc.description	There is an ongoing debate on whether disasters cause significant macroeconomic impacts and are truly a potential impediment to economic development. This paper aims to assess whether and by what mechanisms disasters have the potential to cause significant GDP impacts. The analysis first studies the counterfactual versus the observed gross domestic product. Second, the analysis assesses disaster impacts as a function of hazard, exposure of assets, and, importantly, vulnerability. In a medium-term analysis (up to 5 years after the disaster event), comparing counterfactual with observed gross domestic product, the authors find that natural disasters on average can lead to negative consequences. Although the negative effects may be small, they can become more pronounced depending mainly on the size of the shock. Furthermore, the authors test a large number of vulnerability predictors and find that greater aid and inflows of remittances reduce adverse macroeconomic consequences, and that direct losses appear most critical.
dc.language	English
dc.relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4968
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rights	World Bank
dc.subject	AGRICULTURE
dc.subject	ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
dc.subject	ANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subject	ARIMA
dc.subject	ARMA
dc.subject	ASSETS
dc.subject	AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE
dc.subject	BUDGET DEFICIT
dc.subject	BUSINESS CYCLES
dc.subject	CAPITAL ACCOUNTS
dc.subject	CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subject	CAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subject	CAPITAL STOCK
dc.subject	CENTRE FOR RESEARCH ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY
dc.subject	COMMODITY PRICE
dc.subject	CORRELATION ANALYSIS
dc.subject	CRED
dc.subject	DAMAGES
dc.subject	DEATH TOLL
dc.subject	DEBT
dc.subject	DEBT SERVICE
dc.subject	DEPENDENT VARIABLE
dc.subject	DEPENDENT VARIABLES
dc.subject	DEPRECIATION
dc.subject	DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
dc.subject	DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subject	DEVELOPMENT NETWORK
dc.subject	DISASTER
dc.subject	DISASTER COMMUNITY
dc.subject	DISASTER EVENT
dc.subject	DISASTER EVENTS
dc.subject	DISASTER PREVENTION
dc.subject	DISASTER REDUCTION
dc.subject	DISASTER RISK
dc.subject	DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subject	DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
dc.subject	DISASTER RISKS
dc.subject	DISASTER TYPE
dc.subject	DOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subject	DROUGHT
dc.subject	DROUGHTS
dc.subject	EARTHQUAKE
dc.subject	EARTHQUAKES
dc.subject	ECONOMETRIC MODELS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
dc.subject	ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject	ECONOMIC MODEL
dc.subject	ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
dc.subject	ECONOMIC RISK
dc.subject	ERROR TERMS
dc.subject	EXPORTS
dc.subject	EXPOSURE
dc.subject	EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subject	EXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subject	EXTREME WEATHER
dc.subject	EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL IMPACTS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL RISK
dc.subject	FINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subject	FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
dc.subject	FISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subject	FISCAL IMBALANCES
dc.subject	FLOOD
dc.subject	FLOODS
dc.subject	FORECASTS
dc.subject	FOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subject	FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
dc.subject	GDP
dc.subject	GLOBALIZATION
dc.subject	GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subject	GROWTH RATE
dc.subject	GROWTH RATES
dc.subject	GROWTH THEORY
dc.subject	HUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subject	HURRICANE
dc.subject	IMPORT
dc.subject	IMPORTS
dc.subject	INCOME
dc.subject	INCOME GROUPS
dc.subject	INDEBTEDNESS
dc.subject	INDICATOR VARIABLES
dc.subject	INFLATION
dc.subject	INSURANCE
dc.subject	INSURANCE COMPANIES
dc.subject	INVENTORY
dc.subject	LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS
dc.subject	NATIONAL INCOME
dc.subject	NATURAL CAPITAL
dc.subject	NATURAL CATASTROPHE
dc.subject	NATURAL CATASTROPHES
dc.subject	NATURAL DISASTER
dc.subject	NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
dc.subject	NATURAL DISASTERS
dc.subject	NATURAL HAZARD
dc.subject	NATURAL HAZARDS
dc.subject	OPPORTUNITY COSTS
dc.subject	OVERVALUATION
dc.subject	PER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subject	POLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subject	PRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subject	PUBLIC DEFICIT
dc.subject	PUBLIC DEFICITS
dc.subject	REAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject	REAL GDP
dc.subject	RECONSTRUCTION
dc.subject	REGRESSION ANALYSIS
dc.subject	REINSURANCE
dc.subject	REJECTION
dc.subject	RELIEF
dc.subject	REMITTANCES
dc.subject	RISK TRANSFER
dc.subject	STANDARD DEVIATION
dc.subject	STATISTICAL ANALYSES
dc.subject	STOCHASTIC ERROR
dc.subject	STORM
dc.subject	STORMS
dc.subject	SUPPLY SIDE
dc.subject	SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
dc.subject	TIME HORIZON
dc.subject	TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subject	TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subject	TRADE BALANCES
dc.subject	TRADE DEFICIT
dc.subject	TROPICAL CYCLONES
dc.subject	UNCERTAINTIES
dc.subject	UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject	VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
dc.subject	WEALTH
dc.subject	WINTER STORMS
dc.subject	WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.title	Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters : Are there Any?
dc.type	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
dc.coverage	The World Region
dc.coverage	The World Region