How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan

Brownbridge, Martin; Canagarajah, Sudharshan

dc.creator	Brownbridge, Martin
dc.creator	Canagarajah, Sudharshan
dc.date	2012-03-19T19:11:04Z
dc.date	2012-03-19T19:11:04Z
dc.date	2009-06-01
dc.date.accessioned	2023-02-17T21:10:23Z
dc.date.available	2023-02-17T21:10:23Z
dc.identifier	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618170130
dc.identifier	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4164
dc.identifier.uri	http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/245201
dc.description	The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors, preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support, is required. If additional external budget support can be mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan.
dc.language	English
dc.relation	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4970
dc.rights	CC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rights	World Bank
dc.subject	ACCESS TO EXTERNAL FINANCE
dc.subject	ADDITIONAL INCOME
dc.subject	ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY
dc.subject	ADVISORY SERVICES
dc.subject	AGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subject	BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subject	BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINT
dc.subject	BALANCE SHEETS
dc.subject	BANK LENDING
dc.subject	BANKING SYSTEM
dc.subject	BILL
dc.subject	BORROWING REQUIREMENT
dc.subject	BROAD MONEY
dc.subject	BUFFER
dc.subject	BUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subject	CAPACITY BUILDING
dc.subject	CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject	CAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subject	CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subject	CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subject	CAPITAL GOODS
dc.subject	CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
dc.subject	CENTRAL BANK
dc.subject	COMMERCIAL BANKING
dc.subject	COMMERCIAL BANKS
dc.subject	COMMERCIAL DEBT
dc.subject	COMMERCIAL FINANCE
dc.subject	COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS
dc.subject	CONSTRAINTS ON ACCESS
dc.subject	CONSUMER
dc.subject	CONSUMER DEMAND
dc.subject	CONSUMER GOODS
dc.subject	CONSUMERS
dc.subject	CONSUMPTION SPENDING
dc.subject	CONTRIBUTIONS
dc.subject	CREDIT GROWTH
dc.subject	CREDITS
dc.subject	CREDITWORTHINESS
dc.subject	CRISIS MANAGEMENT
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subject	CURRENT ACCOUNT TRANSACTION
dc.subject	CURRENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subject	DEBT BURDEN
dc.subject	DEBT STOCK
dc.subject	DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subject	DEPOSITS
dc.subject	DEPRECIATION
dc.subject	DEVALUATION
dc.subject	DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subject	DISPOSABLE INCOME
dc.subject	DISPOSABLE INCOMES
dc.subject	DOMESTIC BORROWING
dc.subject	DOMESTIC CURRENCY
dc.subject	DOMESTIC DEBT
dc.subject	DOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subject	DOMESTIC ECONOMY
dc.subject	DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subject	DONOR SUPPORT
dc.subject	DUTCH DISEASE
dc.subject	ECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subject	ECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subject	ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subject	EXCESS DEMAND
dc.subject	EXCESS SUPPLY
dc.subject	EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject	EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION
dc.subject	EXOGENOUS SHOCKS
dc.subject	EXPANSIONARY FISCAL STANCE
dc.subject	EXPENDITURE
dc.subject	EXPENDITURES
dc.subject	EXPORT EARNINGS
dc.subject	EXPORTERS
dc.subject	EXTERNAL BALANCE
dc.subject	EXTERNAL CAPITAL
dc.subject	EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subject	EXTERNAL DEBTS
dc.subject	EXTERNAL FINANCE
dc.subject	EXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subject	EXTERNAL POSITION
dc.subject	EXTERNAL SHOCK
dc.subject	EXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subject	EXTERNAL TERMS OF TRADE
dc.subject	EXTREME POVERTY
dc.subject	FAMILIES
dc.subject	FINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subject	FINANCIAL FRAGILITY
dc.subject	FINANCIAL INSTITUTION
dc.subject	FINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subject	FINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subject	FISCAL BALANCE
dc.subject	FISCAL BALANCES
dc.subject	FISCAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subject	FISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subject	FISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subject	FISCAL POLICIES
dc.subject	FISCAL POLICY
dc.subject	FISCAL POSITION
dc.subject	FISCAL POSITIONS
dc.subject	FISCAL RESOURCES
dc.subject	FISCAL SURPLUSES
dc.subject	FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subject	FOREIGN CAPITAL
dc.subject	FOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subject	FOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS
dc.subject	FOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subject	FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS
dc.subject	FORM OF CREDITS
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT REVENUE
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subject	GOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subject	GROWTH RATE
dc.subject	HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subject	HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subject	IMPORT
dc.subject	IMPORTS
dc.subject	INCOME GROUPS
dc.subject	INCOME TAX
dc.subject	INFLATION
dc.subject	INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subject	INTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subject	INVESTMENT DECISIONS
dc.subject	LACK OF COMPETITION
dc.subject	LIQUIDITY
dc.subject	LIVING STANDARDS
dc.subject	LOAN
dc.subject	LOAN OBLIGATIONS
dc.subject	LOW INCOME
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subject	MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subject	MARKET PRICES
dc.subject	MIGRANT WORKERS
dc.subject	MIGRATION
dc.subject	MONETARY FINANCING
dc.subject	MONETARY FUND
dc.subject	MONETARY POLICY
dc.subject	MONEY SUPPLY
dc.subject	NATIONAL INCOME
dc.subject	OIL PRICE
dc.subject	OIL PRICES
dc.subject	OPTIMAL ALLOCATION
dc.subject	PENSION
dc.subject	PENSION SYSTEM
dc.subject	POLICY RESPONSE
dc.subject	POLICY RESPONSES
dc.subject	POVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subject	PRICE FLEXIBILITY
dc.subject	PRIMARY EDUCATION
dc.subject	PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subject	PRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subject	PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT
dc.subject	PUBLIC BORROWING
dc.subject	PUBLIC DEBT
dc.subject	PUBLIC ENTERPRISES
dc.subject	PUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subject	PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subject	PUBLIC FACILITIES
dc.subject	PUBLIC GOODS
dc.subject	PUBLIC POLICY
dc.subject	PUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subject	PURCHASES
dc.subject	PURCHASING POWER
dc.subject	REAL CONSUMPTION
dc.subject	REAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subject	REMITTANCE
dc.subject	REMITTANCES
dc.subject	RESERVE
dc.subject	RESERVE MONEY
dc.subject	RESERVES
dc.subject	REVENUE MOBILIZATION
dc.subject	RISK OF DEBT
dc.subject	SAFETY NET
dc.subject	SHORT TERM DEBT
dc.subject	SHORTFALL
dc.subject	SHORTFALLS
dc.subject	SLOWDOWN
dc.subject	SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subject	SOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subject	SOCIAL SERVICES
dc.subject	STAKEHOLDERS
dc.subject	STOCKS
dc.subject	SURPLUSES
dc.subject	TAX
dc.subject	TAX EXEMPTIONS
dc.subject	TAX RATE
dc.subject	TAX RATES
dc.subject	TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT
dc.subject	TOTAL DEPOSITS
dc.subject	TRADE BALANCE
dc.subject	TRADE DEFICIT
dc.subject	TRADE SHOCK
dc.subject	TRANSFER PAYMENTS
dc.subject	TRANSITION COUNTRY
dc.subject	TRANSITION ECONOMIES
dc.subject	TRANSPORT
dc.subject	UNCERTAINTY
dc.subject	UNEMPLOYED
dc.subject	WAGE
dc.subject	WORLD MARKET
dc.title	How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan
dc.type	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
dc.coverage	Europe and Central Asia
dc.coverage	Europe and Central Asia
dc.coverage	Eastern Europe
dc.coverage	Commonwealth of Independent States
dc.coverage	Central Asia
dc.coverage	Asia
dc.coverage	Tajikistan