Description:
This paper examines the
energy/non-energy commodity price link, based on a reduced
form econometric model and using annual data from 1960 to
2008. The transmission elasticity from energy to the
non-energy index is estimated at 0.28. At a more
disaggregated level, the fertilizer index exhibited the
largest elasticity (0.55), followed by precious metals
(0.46), food (0.27), metals and minerals (0.25), and raw
materials (0.11). By contrast, only a few price indices
responded strongly to inflation, although the trend
parameter estimate (often viewed as a proxy for
technological progress) is negative for agriculture and
positive for metals. A key implication of the pass-through
results is that for as long as energy prices remain
elevated, most non-energy commodity prices are expected to
be high.