Description:
There is a low but uncertain probability
that climate change could trigger
"mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly
irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This
paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the
defining characteristics of potential climate change
mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics
present difficulties for using standard rational choice
methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need
to balance the benefits and costs of different possible
responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties.
To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of
three options for mitigating the risk of climate
mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas
emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering,
and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of
efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss
the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments
in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.