Sangam: A Confluence of Knowledge Streams

Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies

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dc.creator Keefer, Philip
dc.date 2012-03-30T07:12:36Z
dc.date 2012-03-30T07:12:36Z
dc.date 2008-01-30
dc.date.accessioned 2023-02-18T19:41:03Z
dc.date.available 2023-02-18T19:41:03Z
dc.identifier World Bank Economic Review
dc.identifier 1564-698X
dc.identifier http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4471
dc.identifier.uri http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/CUHPOERS/249956
dc.description The inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society—a previously unexplored determinant of civil war—causes both elected and unelected governments to pursue public policies that leave citizens worse off and more prone to revolt. Noncredible political actors are also less able to build counterinsurgency capacity. Popular dissatisfaction with rulers reduces the costs to counterinsurgents of overthrowing regimes, discouraging rulers from building counterinsurgency capacity in the first place; lack of credibility prevents rulers from writing contracts with counterinsurgents that maximize counterinsurgency effort. Empirical tests across numerous subsamples using various measures of political credibility support the conclusion that broad political credibility ranks at least as high as social fractionalization and natural resource rents as a cause of conflict.
dc.publisher World Bank
dc.rights CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO
dc.rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo
dc.rights World Bank
dc.subject armed conflict
dc.subject civil war
dc.subject conflict
dc.subject counterinsurgency
dc.subject International Bank
dc.subject Peace
dc.subject Peace Research
dc.subject rebel
dc.subject Reconstruction
dc.subject violent conflict
dc.title Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies
dc.type Journal Article
dc.type Journal Article
dc.coverage Guatemala
dc.coverage Uganda
dc.coverage Lebanon
dc.coverage Sri Lanka
dc.coverage Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of
dc.coverage North Macedonia (Formerly the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)


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